Democratic Party Gains Voter Share Despite Voter Registration Maintenance

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

It may be another month before we know the impact of same-day voter registration during early caucus voting and on caucus day, however, if the February voter registration numbers are any indication, voters wanted to participate.

February was a routine voter roll maintenance month. Normally, with very minor exception, raw numbers and voter share percentages decline across the board. Not this time.

Statewide, in Clark and Washoe counties, in the rurals, and among voters 18 to 34 and over 55 years of age, the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, the American Independent Party, the Libertarian Party, and other minor parties all lost voter share (Non-Partisan gained share in the rurals) while the Democratic Party recorded sizeable gains across the board. Since the processing of same-day caucus registration reportedly is still underway, we have to assume most of the Democratic gain is due to voters registering or changing party affiliation before the caucus so they could participate in the process.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 444 0.07% 38.34% 0.20%
R -2,989 -0.57% 32.90% -0.04%
NP -2,401 -0.66% 22.61% -0.05%
IAP -1,195 -1.68% 4.40% -0.05%
LIB -467 -2.88% 0.99% -0.02%
Other -724 -5.60% 0.77% -0.04%
Total not D or R 28.76% -0.16

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -3,145 -0.68% 42.00% 0.25%
R -4,494 -1.40% 28.75% -0.04%
NP -4,158 -1.58% 23.47% -0.07%
IAP -1,300 -2.76% 4.16% -0.06%
LIB -452 -4.41% 0.89% -0.03%
Other -686 -7.87% 0.73% -0.05%
Total not D or R 29.25% -0.21

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,755 2.76% 35.61% 0.48%
R 514 0.50% 35.83% -0.31%
NP 590 0.95% 21.75% -0.09%
IAP 18 0.14% 4.46% -0.04%
LIB -17 -0.47% 1.26% -0.02%
Other -21 -0.67% 1.09% -0.02%
Total not D or R 28.56% -0.17

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 834 1.84% 22.48% 0.08%
R 991 0.96% 51.12% -0.28%
NP 1,167 3.06% 19.17% 0.29%
IAP 49 0.43% 5.58% -0.06%
LIB 2 0.09% 1.13% -0.02%
Other -17 -1.61% 0.51% -0.02%
Total not D or R 26.39% 0.19

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,046 0.63% 39.45% 0.51%
R -1,306 -1.40% 21.62% -0.16%
NP -1,520 -1.12% 31.63% -0.14%
IAP -505 -2.54% 4.55% -0.09%
LIB -258 -3.50% 1.67% -0.05%
Other -347 -7.00% 1.08% -0.07%
Total not D or R 38.93% -0.35

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 15 0.01% 38.34% 0.08%
R -610 -0.22% 41.12% -0.01%
NP -188 -0.18% 15.46% 0.00%
IAP -332 -1.17% 4.15% -0.04%
LIB -82 -2.63% 0.45% -0.01%
Other -126 -3.71% 0.48% -0.02%
Total not D or R 20.54% -0.07

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 4 0
Republican 2 2 0
Non-Partisan 3 1 0
IAP 4 0 0
LIB 4 0 0
Other 4 0 0

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 21 0
Republican 17 3 1
Non-Partisan 14 6 1
IAP 20 0 1
LIB 20 0 1
Other 21 0 0

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a decrease of one.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 2 40 0
Republican 35 6 1
Non-Partisan 24 18 0
IAP 39 1 2
LIB 38 0 4
Other 38 1 3

In 34 districts (80.95%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a decrease of two.

The end of March numbers should provide the total impact of the Democratic Party’s registration efforts leading up to the caucus, including same day registration. They will also give us another look at the impact of automatic voter registration. We’re also less than three months from the start of early voting for the state and local primaries and the implementation of same-day registration for all elections.

Non-Partisans Will Decide Who Wins in November as Major Party Voter Share Falls

With less than two months before the close of voter registration for the general election, it is becoming apparent neither the Democratic nor Republican Party control the outcome. That honor belongs to those voters registered as Non-Partisan.

An analysis of the voter registration numbers for August 2018 show both major parties losing significant voter share while Non-Partisan registered corresponding gains. The rate of growth for Non-Partisan also over-shadows that of the major parties with the Libertarian Party also showing large growth.

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 9,513 1.69 38.40 -0.05
R 7,535 1.51 33.84 -0.10
NP 8,398 2.70 21.40 0.18
IAP 1,272 1.40 4.39 -0.02
LIB 360 2.47 1.00 0.01
Other 7 0.05 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R 27.74 0.15

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 8.876 2.07 42.01 -0.10
R 5,959 1.96 29.66 -0.10
NP 7,469 3.31 22.33 0.22
IAP 1,171 2.00 4.13 -0.02
LIB 308 3.33 0.91 0.01
Other 15 0.15 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R 28.32 0.19

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 682 0.76 35.22 -0.05
R 846 0.88 37.38 0.00
NP 672 1.29 20.40 0.08
IAP 91 0.52 4.48 -0.02
LIB 29 0.89 1.27 0.00
Other 2 0.06 1.25 -0.01
Total not D or R 27.40 0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -45 -0.10 23.05 -0.14
R 730 0.74 51.86 0.12
NP 257 0.76 17.72 0.05
IAP -3 -0.03 5.71 -0.03
LIB 23 1.09 1.11 0.01
Other -10 -0.93 0.55 0.00
Total not D or R 25.09 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,663 3.18 38.47 0.03
R 2,039 2.27 23.34 -0.19
NP 4,435 3.85 30.35 0.22
IAP 728 2.67 4.60 -0.02
LIB 236 3.54 1.75 0.01
Other 21 0.36 1.49 -0.04
Total not D or R 38.19 0.17

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,243 0.92 38.90 -0.09
R 3,394 1.32 41.29 0.06
NP 1,388 1.52 14.68 0.05
IAP 238 0.80 4.12 -0.01
LIB 34 1.22 0.45 0.00
Other -2 -0.06 0.56 -0.01
Total not D or R 19.81 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 3 1 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 3 1 0
LIB 0 4 0
Other 4 0 0

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 20 1 0
Republican 14 7 0
Non-Partisan 1 20 0
IAP 14 6 1
LIB 2 10 9
Other 18 0 3

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 38 2 2
Republican 26 16 0
Non-Partisan 1 40 1
IAP 26 12 4
LIB 11 23 8
Other 36 3 3

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

Monthly changes in excess of one-tenth of one percent (0.10) are significant. Changes of nearly one-quarter of one percent (0.25) are rare. Yet we see type of swings in several places through the tracked demographics. If this trend continues through to the close of voter registration in October, the outcome of key races should be interesting.