June was primary election month with the competitive and most visible races concentrated in the Republican primary. Because of this, voter registration numbers for June saw the Republican Party increasing voter share across the board with minor parties losing. Non-Partisan fluctuation was mixed. Voter share of those not registered as either Democratic or Republican remains the largest voting block statewide and in Clark and Washoe counties. Non-Partisan remains the largest group among voters 18 to 34 years of age and when combined with minor party registration is hovering around 50 percent.
Douglas Goodman provides additional details of voter registration and party affiliation trends on the “Nevadans for Election Reform Website”:
On July 3, 2022, Nevada Voters First turned in over 266,000 signatures to bring top-five open primaries and ranked choice voting to Nevada. We only needed 140,000. Once verified, the referendum initiative will be on the ballot in November.
This is a significant step forward for representative government in Nevada and the voters will decide in November. An informed vote will assure progress towards representative government for voters and not for the big money interests and legislative influence. Watch this site for more about that.
We first reported on the lack of representative government in Nevada when we covered the 2018 primary elections. Here is that blast from the past whose reality still haunts our election system today.
Combined Non-Partisan and Minor Party Registration Approaching Leading Voter Share
By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform
Less than three percent now remains until those not registered to vote as either Democratic or Republican become the largest voting bloc in Nevada. That group is already the largest bloc among voters 18 to 34 years of age by over seven percent. The voter registration numbers for April 2021 continue to show no change to this trend.
Just how strong is this change in voter party preference? This table shows the voter share as of April 2011, 2016, and 2021. Note the change from 2016 to 2021 is more than double the change from 2011 to 2016.
Party
2011
2016
Diff
2021
Diff
D
42.09%
40.08%
-2.01%
35.78%
-4.30%
R
36.38%
35.02%
-1.36%
31.27%
-3.75%
NP
15.82%
18.93%
+3.11%
25.13%
+6.20%
Other
5.71%
5.98%
+0.27%
7.82%
+1.84%
Total Not D or R
21.53%
24.91%
+3.38%
32.95%
+8.04%
Here are the March to April 2021 changes
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-1,183
-0.18%
35.78%
-0.23%
R
-2,311
-0.41%
31.27%
-0.27%
NP
8,006
1.79%
25.13%
0.33%
IAP
158
0.19%
4.55%
-0.01%
LIB
44
0.25%
0.97%
0.00%
Other
3,574
9.42%
2.29%
0.19%
Total not D or R
32.95%
0.51%
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
20
0.00%
38.83%
-0.32%
R
-154
-0.04%
27.44%
-0.24%
NP
7,367
2.26%
25.97%
0.36%
IAP
328
0.59%
4.40%
-0.01%
LIB
114
1.03%
0.87%
0.00%
Other
2,948
10.18%
2.49%
0.21%
Total not D or R
33.73%
0.56%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-530
-0.29%
36.17%
-0.35%
R
-1,066
-1.02%
20.33%
-0.35%
NP
3,653
2.14%
34.19%
0.49%
IAP
-28
-0.12%
4.65%
-0.04%
LIB
-2
-0.02%
1.59%
-0.01%
Other
1,396
9.76%
3.08%
0.25%
Total not D or R
43.50%
0.69%
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-379
-0.14%
36.70%
-0.15%
R
-581
-0.20%
39.84%
-0.18%
NP
1,887
1.52%
17.26%
0.21%
IAP
86
0.27%
4.31%
0.00%
LIB
12
0.38%
0.44%
0.00%
Other
894
9.20%
1.45%
0.12%
Total not D or R
23.46%
0.33%
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
A Republican-sponsored bill (SB121) to address this growing shift in the political landscape was denied a hearing by Democratic leadership.
By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform
It may be another month before we know the impact of same-day voter registration during early caucus voting and on caucus day, however, if the February voter registration numbers are any indication, voters wanted to participate.
February was a routine voter roll maintenance month. Normally, with very minor exception, raw numbers and voter share percentages decline across the board. Not this time.
Statewide, in Clark and Washoe counties, in the rurals, and among voters 18 to 34 and over 55 years of age, the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, the American Independent Party, the Libertarian Party, and other minor parties all lost voter share (Non-Partisan gained share in the rurals) while the Democratic Party recorded sizeable gains across the board. Since the processing of same-day caucus registration reportedly is still underway, we have to assume most of the Democratic gain is due to voters registering or changing party affiliation before the caucus so they could participate in the process.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
444
0.07%
38.34%
0.20%
R
-2,989
-0.57%
32.90%
-0.04%
NP
-2,401
-0.66%
22.61%
-0.05%
IAP
-1,195
-1.68%
4.40%
-0.05%
LIB
-467
-2.88%
0.99%
-0.02%
Other
-724
-5.60%
0.77%
-0.04%
Total not D or R
28.76%
-0.16
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-3,145
-0.68%
42.00%
0.25%
R
-4,494
-1.40%
28.75%
-0.04%
NP
-4,158
-1.58%
23.47%
-0.07%
IAP
-1,300
-2.76%
4.16%
-0.06%
LIB
-452
-4.41%
0.89%
-0.03%
Other
-686
-7.87%
0.73%
-0.05%
Total not D or R
29.25%
-0.21
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
2,755
2.76%
35.61%
0.48%
R
514
0.50%
35.83%
-0.31%
NP
590
0.95%
21.75%
-0.09%
IAP
18
0.14%
4.46%
-0.04%
LIB
-17
-0.47%
1.26%
-0.02%
Other
-21
-0.67%
1.09%
-0.02%
Total not D or R
28.56%
-0.17
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
834
1.84%
22.48%
0.08%
R
991
0.96%
51.12%
-0.28%
NP
1,167
3.06%
19.17%
0.29%
IAP
49
0.43%
5.58%
-0.06%
LIB
2
0.09%
1.13%
-0.02%
Other
-17
-1.61%
0.51%
-0.02%
Total not D or R
26.39%
0.19
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,046
0.63%
39.45%
0.51%
R
-1,306
-1.40%
21.62%
-0.16%
NP
-1,520
-1.12%
31.63%
-0.14%
IAP
-505
-2.54%
4.55%
-0.09%
LIB
-258
-3.50%
1.67%
-0.05%
Other
-347
-7.00%
1.08%
-0.07%
Total not D or R
38.93%
-0.35
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
15
0.01%
38.34%
0.08%
R
-610
-0.22%
41.12%
-0.01%
NP
-188
-0.18%
15.46%
0.00%
IAP
-332
-1.17%
4.15%
-0.04%
LIB
-82
-2.63%
0.45%
-0.01%
Other
-126
-3.71%
0.48%
-0.02%
Total not D or R
20.54%
-0.07
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
0
4
0
Republican
2
2
0
Non-Partisan
3
1
0
IAP
4
0
0
LIB
4
0
0
Other
4
0
0
In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
0
21
0
Republican
17
3
1
Non-Partisan
14
6
1
IAP
20
0
1
LIB
20
0
1
Other
21
0
0
In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a decrease of one.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
2
40
0
Republican
35
6
1
Non-Partisan
24
18
0
IAP
39
1
2
LIB
38
0
4
Other
38
1
3
In 34 districts (80.95%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a decrease of two.
The end of March numbers should provide the total impact of the Democratic Party’s registration efforts leading up to the caucus, including same day registration. They will also give us another look at the impact of automatic voter registration. We’re also less than three months from the start of early voting for the state and local primaries and the implementation of same-day registration for all elections.
With less than two months before the close of voter registration for the general election, it is becoming apparent neither the Democratic nor Republican Party control the outcome. That honor belongs to those voters registered as Non-Partisan.
An analysis of the voter registration numbers for August 2018 show both major parties losing significant voter share while Non-Partisan registered corresponding gains. The rate of growth for Non-Partisan also over-shadows that of the major parties with the Libertarian Party also showing large growth.
In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
9,513
1.69
38.40
-0.05
R
7,535
1.51
33.84
-0.10
NP
8,398
2.70
21.40
0.18
IAP
1,272
1.40
4.39
-0.02
LIB
360
2.47
1.00
0.01
Other
7
0.05
0.95
-0.02
Total not D or R
27.74
0.15
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
8.876
2.07
42.01
-0.10
R
5,959
1.96
29.66
-0.10
NP
7,469
3.31
22.33
0.22
IAP
1,171
2.00
4.13
-0.02
LIB
308
3.33
0.91
0.01
Other
15
0.15
0.95
-0.02
Total not D or R
28.32
0.19
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
682
0.76
35.22
-0.05
R
846
0.88
37.38
0.00
NP
672
1.29
20.40
0.08
IAP
91
0.52
4.48
-0.02
LIB
29
0.89
1.27
0.00
Other
2
0.06
1.25
-0.01
Total not D or R
27.40
0.05
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-45
-0.10
23.05
-0.14
R
730
0.74
51.86
0.12
NP
257
0.76
17.72
0.05
IAP
-3
-0.03
5.71
-0.03
LIB
23
1.09
1.11
0.01
Other
-10
-0.93
0.55
0.00
Total not D or R
25.09
0.03
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
4,663
3.18
38.47
0.03
R
2,039
2.27
23.34
-0.19
NP
4,435
3.85
30.35
0.22
IAP
728
2.67
4.60
-0.02
LIB
236
3.54
1.75
0.01
Other
21
0.36
1.49
-0.04
Total not D or R
38.19
0.17
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
2,243
0.92
38.90
-0.09
R
3,394
1.32
41.29
0.06
NP
1,388
1.52
14.68
0.05
IAP
238
0.80
4.12
-0.01
LIB
34
1.22
0.45
0.00
Other
-2
-0.06
0.56
-0.01
Total not D or R
19.81
0.03
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
3
1
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
IAP
3
1
0
LIB
0
4
0
Other
4
0
0
CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
20
1
0
Republican
14
7
0
Non-Partisan
1
20
0
IAP
14
6
1
LIB
2
10
9
Other
18
0
3
In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
38
2
2
Republican
26
16
0
Non-Partisan
1
40
1
IAP
26
12
4
LIB
11
23
8
Other
36
3
3
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.
Monthly changes in excess of one-tenth of one percent (0.10) are significant. Changes of nearly one-quarter of one percent (0.25) are rare. Yet we see type of swings in several places through the tracked demographics. If this trend continues through to the close of voter registration in October, the outcome of key races should be interesting.
