Non-Partisans Will Decide Who Wins in November as Major Party Voter Share Falls

With less than two months before the close of voter registration for the general election, it is becoming apparent neither the Democratic nor Republican Party control the outcome. That honor belongs to those voters registered as Non-Partisan.

An analysis of the voter registration numbers for August 2018 show both major parties losing significant voter share while Non-Partisan registered corresponding gains. The rate of growth for Non-Partisan also over-shadows that of the major parties with the Libertarian Party also showing large growth.

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 9,513 1.69 38.40 -0.05
R 7,535 1.51 33.84 -0.10
NP 8,398 2.70 21.40 0.18
IAP 1,272 1.40 4.39 -0.02
LIB 360 2.47 1.00 0.01
Other 7 0.05 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R 27.74 0.15

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 8.876 2.07 42.01 -0.10
R 5,959 1.96 29.66 -0.10
NP 7,469 3.31 22.33 0.22
IAP 1,171 2.00 4.13 -0.02
LIB 308 3.33 0.91 0.01
Other 15 0.15 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R 28.32 0.19

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 682 0.76 35.22 -0.05
R 846 0.88 37.38 0.00
NP 672 1.29 20.40 0.08
IAP 91 0.52 4.48 -0.02
LIB 29 0.89 1.27 0.00
Other 2 0.06 1.25 -0.01
Total not D or R 27.40 0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -45 -0.10 23.05 -0.14
R 730 0.74 51.86 0.12
NP 257 0.76 17.72 0.05
IAP -3 -0.03 5.71 -0.03
LIB 23 1.09 1.11 0.01
Other -10 -0.93 0.55 0.00
Total not D or R 25.09 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,663 3.18 38.47 0.03
R 2,039 2.27 23.34 -0.19
NP 4,435 3.85 30.35 0.22
IAP 728 2.67 4.60 -0.02
LIB 236 3.54 1.75 0.01
Other 21 0.36 1.49 -0.04
Total not D or R 38.19 0.17

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,243 0.92 38.90 -0.09
R 3,394 1.32 41.29 0.06
NP 1,388 1.52 14.68 0.05
IAP 238 0.80 4.12 -0.01
LIB 34 1.22 0.45 0.00
Other -2 -0.06 0.56 -0.01
Total not D or R 19.81 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 3 1 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 3 1 0
LIB 0 4 0
Other 4 0 0

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 20 1 0
Republican 14 7 0
Non-Partisan 1 20 0
IAP 14 6 1
LIB 2 10 9
Other 18 0 3

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 38 2 2
Republican 26 16 0
Non-Partisan 1 40 1
IAP 26 12 4
LIB 11 23 8
Other 36 3 3

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

Monthly changes in excess of one-tenth of one percent (0.10) are significant. Changes of nearly one-quarter of one percent (0.25) are rare. Yet we see type of swings in several places through the tracked demographics. If this trend continues through to the close of voter registration in October, the outcome of key races should be interesting.