Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Legislative Session Ends – Major Party Voter Share Down

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Last month we asked if the political maneuvering during the legislative session would drive voter share of the major political parties down. Based on the voter registration numbers for June 2019 just released by the secretary of state, that could be the case.  

Across all tracked demographics; Statewide, Clark County, Washoe County, rural counties, among younger and older voters, both the Democratic and Republican Party lost voter share. The only exception, the Democratic Party held steady among those 18 to 34 years of age. At the same time, Non-Partisan gained share among all demographics and the minor parties (Independent American, Libertarian, and others) were mixed, either holding steady or gaining.

Raw growth was not any kinder to the major parties. Their percentage of growth lagged behind Non-Partisan and the minor parties. The highest rate of growth was seen by the Independent American and Libertarian parties.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 3,073 0.52% 38.06% -0.01%
R 2,054 0.39% 33.55% -0.06%
NP 2,785 0.81% 22.11% 0.06%
IAP 602 0.88% 4.41% 0.01%
LIB 153 0.97% 1.01% 0.00%
Other 16 0.12% 0.86% 0.00%
Total not D or R 28.39% 0.07

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,708 0.60% 41.78% -0.02%
R 1,526 0.48% 29.30% -0.05%
NP 2,245 0.91% 23.02% 0.06%
IAP 483 1.08% 4.15% 0.02%
LIB 124 1.26% 0.92% 0.01%
Other 7 0.08% 0.83% 0.00%
Total not D or R 28.92% 0.09%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 318 0.33% 34.92% -0.02%
R 299 0.29% 36.85% -0.03%
NP 350 0.59% 21.32% 0.05%
IAP 61 0.49% 4.47% 0.01%
LIB 14 0.40% 1.28% 0.01%
Other 2 0.06% 1.17% -0.01%
Total not D or R 28.24% 0.06%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 47 0.10% 22.52% -0.04%
R 229 0.22% 51.69% -0.03%
NP 190 0.51% 18.37% 0.04%
IAP 58 0.50% 5.72% 0.01%
LIB 15 0.65% 1.15% 0.00%
Other 7 0.63% 0.55% 0.00%
Total not D or R 25.79% 0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,019 0.63% 38.45% 0.00%
R 327 0.34% 22.75% -0.07%
NP 1,090 0.83% 31.20% 0.06%
IAP 210 1.10% 4.58% 0.02%
LIB 53 0.73% 1.74% 0.00%
Other -8 -0.15% 1.27% -0.01%
Total not D or R 38.80% 0.07%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,213 0.48% 38.38% -0.02%
R 1,291 0.48% 41.43% -0.03%
NP 783 0.80% 15.07% 0.04%
IAP 199 0.73% 4.15% 0.01%
LIB 25 0.85% 0.45% 0.00%
Other 15 0.44% 0.52% 0.00%
Total not D or R 20.194% 0.05%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 0 4 0
LIB 0 2 2
Other 1 0 3

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 16 4 1
Republican 18 1 2
Non-Partisan 2 19 0
IAP 1 16 4
LIB 3 8 10
Other 7 0 14

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 28 11 3
Republican 35 4 3
Non-Partisan 4 36 2
IAP 4 31 7
LIB 8 21 13
Other 14 3 25

In 34 districts (81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

We are now entering the presidential election cycle. The Democratic Party held their first candidate debate. Automatic voter registration approved by the voters in 2018 will be implemented. Beginning with early voting next year, voters will be able to register to vote or update their voter registration when they go to the polls to vote; same-day voter registration signed into law by Governor Sisolak. We don’t know how both these programs will impact voter registration or turnout. We will be watching.

Non-Partisans Will Decide Who Wins in November as Major Party Voter Share Falls

With less than two months before the close of voter registration for the general election, it is becoming apparent neither the Democratic nor Republican Party control the outcome. That honor belongs to those voters registered as Non-Partisan.

An analysis of the voter registration numbers for August 2018 show both major parties losing significant voter share while Non-Partisan registered corresponding gains. The rate of growth for Non-Partisan also over-shadows that of the major parties with the Libertarian Party also showing large growth.

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 9,513 1.69 38.40 -0.05
R 7,535 1.51 33.84 -0.10
NP 8,398 2.70 21.40 0.18
IAP 1,272 1.40 4.39 -0.02
LIB 360 2.47 1.00 0.01
Other 7 0.05 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R 27.74 0.15

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 8.876 2.07 42.01 -0.10
R 5,959 1.96 29.66 -0.10
NP 7,469 3.31 22.33 0.22
IAP 1,171 2.00 4.13 -0.02
LIB 308 3.33 0.91 0.01
Other 15 0.15 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R 28.32 0.19

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 682 0.76 35.22 -0.05
R 846 0.88 37.38 0.00
NP 672 1.29 20.40 0.08
IAP 91 0.52 4.48 -0.02
LIB 29 0.89 1.27 0.00
Other 2 0.06 1.25 -0.01
Total not D or R 27.40 0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -45 -0.10 23.05 -0.14
R 730 0.74 51.86 0.12
NP 257 0.76 17.72 0.05
IAP -3 -0.03 5.71 -0.03
LIB 23 1.09 1.11 0.01
Other -10 -0.93 0.55 0.00
Total not D or R 25.09 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,663 3.18 38.47 0.03
R 2,039 2.27 23.34 -0.19
NP 4,435 3.85 30.35 0.22
IAP 728 2.67 4.60 -0.02
LIB 236 3.54 1.75 0.01
Other 21 0.36 1.49 -0.04
Total not D or R 38.19 0.17

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,243 0.92 38.90 -0.09
R 3,394 1.32 41.29 0.06
NP 1,388 1.52 14.68 0.05
IAP 238 0.80 4.12 -0.01
LIB 34 1.22 0.45 0.00
Other -2 -0.06 0.56 -0.01
Total not D or R 19.81 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 3 1 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 3 1 0
LIB 0 4 0
Other 4 0 0

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 20 1 0
Republican 14 7 0
Non-Partisan 1 20 0
IAP 14 6 1
LIB 2 10 9
Other 18 0 3

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 38 2 2
Republican 26 16 0
Non-Partisan 1 40 1
IAP 26 12 4
LIB 11 23 8
Other 36 3 3

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

Monthly changes in excess of one-tenth of one percent (0.10) are significant. Changes of nearly one-quarter of one percent (0.25) are rare. Yet we see type of swings in several places through the tracked demographics. If this trend continues through to the close of voter registration in October, the outcome of key races should be interesting.